Happy Monday, everyone.
We were treated to one of the best weekends in NFL history. Let’s jump right in.
If you were forwarded this week’s edition, please consider signing up to receive future Lukas Reviews in your inbox.
What I Watched Last Week
There were a few resounding takeaways from this weekend’s Divisional Round matchups, none more evident than my inability to prognosticate. Here’s a reminder of my expected scorelines:
Bengals 21
Titans 24
49ers 17
Packers 31
Rams 21
Buccaneers 17
Bills 31
Chiefs 27
I would suggest betting against my predictions for the Championship games. It was surprising that three out of the four underdogs moved on, with the Bills only 13 seconds away from completing a clean sweep.
Bengals def. Titans (19-16)
Several pundits noted throughout the game that teams should be separated into two categories: teams who have a quarterback and those who do not. A talented roster and lackluster quarterback can lead a team to the playoffs — and even the first seed — but will eventually cost them dearly. The Titans found out that Ryan Tannehill is simply a class below the top quarterbacks in the NFL. The contrast between Tannehill and Mahomes and Allen was put on full display during their electric Sunday night battle.
Divisional Round Interceptions
Ryan Tannehill: 3
Other 7 Quarterbacks Combined: 3
The third and final Tannehill interception sealed the Titans’ fate and solidified Cinncinatti’s place in the AFC Championship game. The Titans are saddled with Tannehill for at least another season as his cap hit will rise from “$11.1 million this season to $38.6 million in 2022, according to Over the Cap, and cutting him before June 1 would mean $57.4 million in dead money.”1
49ers def. Packers (13-10)
This NFC matchup was quite the headscratcher. In Lambeau, the Packers played a complete dud. After marching down the field and scoring a touchdown in their openning possession, the Packers only tacked on an additional three points. Inexcusable. Glancing at the quarterback efficiency chart above, Aaron Rogers outplayed Jimmy Garropolo. So how did they lose? The answer is special teams. Green Bay’s Special Teams unit ranked dead last in the NFL in DVOA; fittingly, the 49ers scored their sole touchdown on a blocked punt.
The Packers failed to capitalize on an ill-timed Garropollo interception right before the end of the half. Rodgers connected with half-back Aaron Jones on a wheel route that resulted in the Packers having the ball at the 49ers’ 14-yard line with 25 seconds remaining. Ultimately, Max Crosby’s 39-yard field goal attempt was blocked. The series of miscues can be placed with the Special Teams. Still, Aaron Rodgers should be held accountable for only scoring 10 points.
Questions surround Rodgers and the Packers this offseason. The team is currently $40,114,317 over the cap, without an extension or franchise tag for Davante Adams. The situation remains murky for both Rodgers and the team; I will cover this in more detail on this once the season concludes.
Rams def. Buccaneers (30-27)
To lose it like that, it’s hard. The finality of this league is a bitch. — Bruce Arians
Okay, so the one game I did predict correctly. Remarkably, the Bucs rallied back from a 24-point deficit to tie the game. As a soccer commentator would say, the game appeared done and dusted. They got some assistance from the Rams: a team who fumbled only twelve times during the regular season did it four times on Sunday. You provide Tom Brady an inch of space, and he takes a mile — ask the Falcons.
This game was a chess match between Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles and Matthew Stafford. During the regular season, the former elected to blitz on 40.8% of their snaps — 45 more times than any other team. Stafford tallied a +89.1 passing EPA against the blitz during the regular season, the highest figure recorded in the Next Gen Stats era.2
The Bucs did a great job adjusting once they realized the blitz would be ineffective.
They decreased their blitzing plays by over 50% and let the Rams hurt themselves. However, their decision-making on the final drive ultimately cost them the game.
The Rams final drive began with 46 seconds left in regulation. If I learned anything over the weekend, 46 seconds is an eternity — or 3 separate Patrick Mahomes drives. After enduring a sack, Stafford found Cooper Kupp for a 20-yard gain. With 28-seconds left, Bowles called a zero-blitz.
Here’s a great excerpt on the final play from The Athletic:
With 28 seconds left, the Rams tried to set their line and snap the ball quicker than the Bucs could align their pass rush, so they could leverage them into an unbalanced effort. But the Bucs were where they planned to be, and Stafford saw post-snap that everybody was coming — a zero-blitz — as Kupp sprinted downfield on a deep over concept that never gets targeted.
Kupp and Stafford nicknamed that specific concept the “for the love of the game” route, because it’s specifically designed to pull a defender away from underneath concepts under hot pressure, for long enough and with enough space emerging for the quarterback to deliver the quick pass. In meetings when that play or something similar comes up, they joke about how the high-concept receiver will never, never get the ball.
This time, though, Stafford’s pass went to Kupp, for 44 yards.
Live by the blitz, die by the blitz.
Chiefs def. Bills (42-36)
Sunday’s AFC divisional matchup will be remembered amongst the best playoff games ever played. A year after Stefon Diggs watched the Chiefs celebrate their AFC Championship win, the Bills failed to exact revenge.
As the teams exchanged score-for-score within the final two minutes, history was made:
In total, there were five lead changes during the final two minutes. The quarterback chart at the top illustrates that both Mahomes and Allen put their teams in a position to win. Here is what transpired over the final two minutes.
Josh Allen fires a touchdown to a wide-open Gabriel Davis on 4th-and-13.
Tyreek Hill made a game-saving play. On the play, Hill recorded 42 yards after the catch over expected. The Chief’s touchdown drive took less than a minute, providing Josh Allen ample time to respond.
Josh Allen and Gabriel Davis connected on a 19-yard touchdown, leaving 13-seconds on the clock.
This touchdown should have ended the game. To beat the Chiefs, one must play perfect, aggressive football.
Pursue touchdowns over field goals by attempting borderline 4th downs
No turnovers
Correct coaching decisions
The third point is where the Bills erred on Sunday night. Up 36-33, the Bills prepared to kickoff:
Nantz: There’s still 13 seconds to go. Put this kick on the ground? Burn up some time?
Romo: Yeah, you want to, honestly … you just don’t want it to be a normal kickoff. You want to be just a little short and make it so your guys can make sure to tackle. I just wouldn’t want to give Mahomes …
**Touchback**
Romo: I don’t necessarily agree with that.
Nantz: Launches it deep.
Romo: Take four of five seconds off, Mahomes now has two plays.
Thank you to The Athletic for that transcription. Romo and Nantz were correct. The Bills should have squibbed the kick, which would have burned several seconds off the clock as Tyreek Hill was not even on the field as a return man. Coach Sean McDermott said after the game regarding the kickoff: “I’m just going to leave it at the execution, and that starts with me.”3 Thirteen seconds provides Mahomes two plays; evidently, one too many.
Some have questioned the overtime rules in response to this game. I agree that it is unjust that Josh Allen did not touch the ball in overtime, but any arguments that the current rules lost the Bills the game are misguided. The Bills coaching staff lost this game.
If you are a Bills fan looking for a silver lining, Josh Allen emerged with a pyrrhic victory. He firmly placed himself within the top three quarterbacks in the NFL. My rankings?
Josh Allen
Patrick Mahomes
Justin Herbert
Okay, so now on to next week.
Sunday @ 3:00 PM EST: Bengals v. Chiefs (-7)
Will Tyrann Mathieu and Charvarius Ward play?
Will the Bengals execute steps 1-3 from above?
Can Joe Mixon gash the Chief’s defense?
Prediction:
Bengals 21
Chiefs 27
Sunday @ 6:30 PM EST: 49ers v. Rams (-3.5)
Can the Rams avoid the costly turnovers?
Did the Rams learn from their two losses to the 49ers this season?
What can the 49ers expect from Jimmy G this week?
Prediction:
49ers 17
Rams 24
What I’m Reading
Sports
The rise of Chiefs GM Brett Veach and the story that explains it: ‘Pat no matter what’ ***
Bookmaker flagged $420,000 of bets on controversial Arsenal yellow card to watchdog *
My game in my words. By Theo Hernandez *
Tim Hoogland interview: What it’s like to play for all three of Rangnick, Klopp and Tuchel *
Business
Tech Start-Ups Reach a New Peak of Froth ***
Hot Ethereum NFT Platform LooksRare Is Rife With Wash Trading—And OK With It ***
Robinhood and Democracy Promotion ***
General Catalyst's Secret CEO *
Empty Private Jet Flights Hastened Credit Suisse Chairman António Horta-Osório’s Downfall *
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended
https://theathletic.com/3086195/2022/01/23/rexrode-titans-loss-to-bengals-was-a-bitter-dose-of-ryan-tannehill-reality/
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/bills-squib-kick-chiefs-sean-mcdermott/1ia0a58d9thct1dipk8h81u2j2