Happy Monday, everyone.
We were treated to two highly competitive Championship games on Sunday; my thoughts and breakdowns can be found below.
Here’s the scheduling for the next two weeks of Lukas Review Content:
February 7th — Super Bowl Primer
February 14th — Champions League Knockouts Primer
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What I Watched Last Week
While it’s a small sample size, the right-quadrant rule has again reigned supreme: both teams advancing to the Super Bowl are led by right-quadrant quarterbacks. Top-left Jimmy Garoppolo generated a positive Expected Points Added per play but was woefully inaccurate; meanwhile, Mahomes (bottom-right) was stifled by the Bengals’ second half adjustments — a topic that I will cover later on.
In anticipation of the Super Bowl, let’s evaluate the quarterback’s playoff performances. The top performer remains the elephant in the room: it was tragic we could not witness Josh Allen continue to build on his impressive playoff statistics. The next three quarterbacks played on Sunday, with Garoppolo the notable exception. Moreover, top-tier quarterback play is a prerequisite for postseason success.
My predictions for the Championship round:
Bengals 21
Chiefs 27
49ers 17
Rams 24
Bengals def. Chiefs (27-24)
Largely an afterthought, the Bengals pulled off a historic upset in Arrowhead. The Bengals’ win has catapulted Joe Burrow into a bonafide star, receiving heaps of postgame praise. The praise, while more-than-deserved, should be partially targeted towards their defense, who surrendered only 3 points to the Chiefs offense in the second half and overtime.
Mahomes started the game 13-of-14 for 154 yards and three touchdowns. At one point, the Chiefs led 21-3. One bettor assumed Mahomes 37-0 record with a lead of 15+ points would remain intact:
The Chiefs’ collapse began when Mahomes threw short of the end zone on the first half’s final play. Instead of notching at least a field goal, the Chiefs came away with nothing. Their inability to score precipitated their next five possessions: punt, punt, interception, punt, and punt. In total, Mahomes went 8/15 for 55 yards and an interception in the second half.
Coach Zac Taylor’s halftime adjustments completely flipped the game on its head. According to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals nearly doubled their usage of dropping eight-plus defenders into coverage. They followed the playbook to contain Mahomes to a tee.
How did Mahomes perform against those looks?
I would suggest thinking back to the Chief’s final possession in regulation.
The Bengals rushed three in this pivotal third down but placed #94, Sam Hubbard, as a QB spy. You can see him in the still frame watching Mahomes at the 5-yard line. After several seconds, he rushes Mahomes and forces a fumble.
The Bengals transitioned from allowing Mahomes to inflict damage on their secondary to forcing him to hold the ball. This game plan was effective due to Andy Reid’s reluctance to commit to the run game despite a sizeable lead: halfbacks Jedrick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined for 18 carries. Zac Taylor's halftime adjustments exploited the Chiefs for their one-dimensionality. Taylor, who owned the second-worst 30-game record in NFL (5-24-1), out-coached Andy Reid.
To wrap up this game, I wanted to highlight rookie kicker Evan McPherson:
An X-factor in these playoffs: rookie kicker Evan McPherson, who has made all 12 field-goal tries in three successive one-score victories, a record number without a miss during a single postseason. His kicks have added 9.3 points above expectation, according to TruMedia’s EPA model. That is by far the best figure for any kicker in the playoffs this season. The figure includes 1.7 EPA on the 52-yarder McPherson made in the fourth quarter to take a 24-21 lead against the Chiefs.
Mike Sando’s column is on point. The Bengals’ turnaround from 2-11 and 4-11-1 was built on drafting impact players like Ja’Marr Chase and McPherson and utilizing free agency to round out their team with signings Riley Reiff, Chidobe Awuzie, and Trey Hendrickson. The Bengals have rewritten the blueprint on rebuilding a team from scratch, and their efforts have resulted in a Super Bowl birth.
Rams def. 49ers (20-17)
This game was going to be defined by the coaching matchup of McVay versus Shanahan. Could Shanahan hide Jimmy Garopollo's deficiencies better than McVay’s ability to highlight Stafford’s skill set in his system? The former was a Jaquiski Tartt layup interception away from doing so but fell short. After the 17-7 comeback, McVay won his first professional game when trailing by ten or more entering the 4th quarter; previously, his record was 0-14.1
The 49ers did an admirable job at preventing explosive plays and forced the Rams to endure a season-high 18 third downs. Yet, the Rams converted at their third-best rate of the season: 61.11%. Matthew Stafford “completed 10 of 14 passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns to Cooper Kupp on third downs.”2 In the decisive 4th quarter, Garoppolo went 3-9 for 30 yards and an interception. If you needed a reason why the 49ers traded 3-1st round picks to trade up and select Trey Lance, this game put Garoppolo’s limitations on full display.
The Rams’ strategy of mortgaging the future for present success is partially vindicated. McVay became the fifth coach to make two Super Bowls in his first five seasons. In hindsight, the cost of acquiring Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars, picks which became Travis Etienne and K'Lavon Chaisson, was a bargain. And their trade which shipped Jared Goff and 2-1st rounders to Detroit for Matthew Stafford appears worthwhile. While the future ramifications of this strategy will play out over the subsequent years, a Super Bowl win would assuage any doubts about the approach.
However, these trades would have been viewed differently if Kyle Shanahan had emerged victoriously. One can directly attribute the loss to a few questionable 4th quarter coaching decisions, and it continues an unfortunate trend:
While Orlovsky’s tweet is nitpicking his playoff losses, it illustrates that when things are not going right for Shanahan, they occur in the most crucial moments. I think of the pivotal 4th-and-2 from the Rams 45-yard line. With 10:01 remaining in regulation, a conversion would allow the 49ers to run significant time off of the clock in addition to yielding at least a field goal. People with a much deeper understanding of football than me say: if you play not to lose, you will lose. For all his impressive accolades, the decision to punt was inexplicable.
Shanahan willingly conceded 5.4 winning percentage points. The cowardly decision proved consequential as the Rams quickly marched down to kick a field goal to tie the game. In the most critical moment of the season, Shanahan played to not lose, and guess what? He lost. Additionally, Shanahan opted not to call his timeouts before the 2:00 warning, further reducing the clock for Garopollo’s final possession. These decisions are borderline indefensible and allowed McVay and Stafford to avenge their two losses to the 49ers during the regular season.
Thanks for reading!
What I’m Reading
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All the smoke: How a forgotten inventor turned Arrowhead into the loudest stadium in sports **
‘Dimitri Payet was the X factor’: The world-class talent, the fallout and the bitter West Ham exit **
How do you value a [soccer] player? **
Will NFL overtime rules change after Bills-Chiefs? Don’t count on it **
Bayern are a different beast under Nagelsmann – they are stronger and more flexible **
‘We pushed it’: How Toronto FC landed Lorenzo Insigne **
Sports on TV: The math behind the big ratings for an epic NFL playoff weekend *
Why the Vikings hired former Browns exec Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as their new GM *
Something has to give for Pulisic – things can’t go on like this *
Is the 'Bundesliga Tax' real? *
Why Juventus’ €75m move for Vlahovic will strike fear into their Serie A rivals *
Jean-Michel Aulas: A maverick, an innovator and a president like no other *
What the biggest transfers of all time tell you about the state of modern football *
Luis Diaz: Why Liverpool pounced, what he’ll bring, his signature move and the ‘Noodle’ nickname *
Business
Cracking a $2 Million Crypto Wallet ***
The Charismatic Developer and the Ponzi Scheme That Suckered San Diego **
Why Facebook and Twitter Opened the Door to NFTs **
Putin's Challenge to Western hegemony - the 2022 edition (Pt. 1) **
Strategy of Tension - updated on the economic fallout from Russian-Ukraine crisis (Pt. 2) **
The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future *
https://theathletic.com/3102038/2022/01/30/elite-company-for-joe-burrow-and-sean-mcvay-plus-other-seven-other-nfl-conference-championship-stats/
https://theathletic.com/3102038/2022/01/30/elite-company-for-joe-burrow-and-sean-mcvay-plus-other-seven-other-nfl-conference-championship-stats/