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Table of Contents:
What I Watched This Week
Deep Dive: MLS’ Shift in Transfers Analyzed
What I Am Watching This Week
What I’m Reading
What I Watched This Week
MLB
Hitter of the Week: Joey Votto
There was no much discussion here. Few superlatives wholly encompass what Votto accomplished the past few games.
When one can count on two hands the other individuals to accomplish something in baseball, it is something noteworthy. He raised his OPS by 90 points in a week! Genuinely remarkable stuff, especially since he just turned a spry 37.
It is worth noting that Joey Votto is a massive Ted Lasso fan. Votto did not take kindly to his manager’s comparison to icon Roy Kent and, instead, did the Jamie Tartt celebration:
Pitcher of the Week: Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove earns the nod as this week’s PotW. Regardless of the opponent — he faced an anemic and dysfunctional Rockies side — Musgrove was efficiently (91 pitches) able to go 7 strong innings. He only allowed 3 hits and a single walk in the outing, meanwhile racking up 11K’s. Consequently, Musgrove’s ERA dropped below 3 and evened out his record to 7-7. Let’s break down Musgrove’s evolution as a pitcher.
First, a little backstory: Joe Musgrove was selected by the Blue Jays directly out of high school. After a decent stretch with the Blue Jays’ minor league affiliate, the Bluefield Blue Jays, Musgrove was included in the massive 10-player deal between the Blue Jays and Astros — centered around the Jays’ acquisition of J.A. Happ. He reached the Astros major league team in 2016, accumulating a 4.06 ERA over 11 games (ten starts). In 2017, Musgrove pitched in 38 games — 15 starts — for the Astros with a 4.77 ERA. After the season, the Astros traded Musgrove as the focal point in a trade for Pirates ace Gerrit Cole. He embattled a poor season in 2019 before rebounding in 2020 — posting a 3.86 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 39.2 innings pitched. Again, Musgrove was traded. This time, he was included in a 3-team deal which saw him moved to the Padres.
This season for the Padres has been solid, but he has undoubtedly benefited from luck as his xERA 3.58 is over 60 points higher than his actual. Regardless of his good fortune, Musgrove has evolved as a pitcher, evidenced by his Pitch % by Season chart. He has primarily shifted away from his 4-seam and leaned heavily on his slider.
Musgrove has been an analytics darling due to his “Stuff.” He generates considerable horizontal break on his slider, making it an effective pitch for him.
According to Eno Sarris, Musgrove’s balance between stuff and command positions him as the 11th best pitcher in the MLB.1 The Padres will need him to continue to pitch at this level if they want to hold off the Dodgers in the NL West.
Deep-Dive
The MLS’ South American Buying Spree
Some disregard the MLS as the quality of soccer pales in comparison to its European counterparts. I would contend that there is a drop-off in style, but that does not prevent a viewer from appreciating it. In fact, the MLS’ 180-degree shift from purchasing washed-up European players to becoming an intermediate destination for top South American talent has been genius.
The old MLS model was broken. Players like Andrea Pirlo, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Bastian Schweinsteiger reveled in the opportunity to make millions in a downtrodden league where they could enjoy the spoils of American life without much responsibility. They were awarded lives of relative anonymity, a foreign concept to European soccer players. As the MLS became connotated with its lifeless stars, commissioner Don Garber knew a change of ethos was required.
In 2018, Garber came out and said, “we need to become more of a selling league.”2 Consequently, rules were passed to further incentivize clubs to sell. MLS clubs invested heavily in scouting, player development, and transfer fees. In lieu of the Pirlo’s and Lampard’s, clubs purchased promising talents with hopes of increasing their values with MLS marketing and development.
Miguel Almirón first manifested this vision. Atlanta United paid $8 million USD Club Atlético Lanús in the Argentine Primera División for Almirón. He was the catalyst for Atlanta’s championship in their second season — with 12 goals and 14 assists in the campaign. After 2 years, he was sold to Newcastle United for $29.2 million USD. The below calculation does not include the sizable monetary benefit of winning the MLS Cup nor the generated ticket and merchandise sales. A quick IRR calculation returns a return of 265%!
Other players fit into this archetype, notably Alphonso Davies. Davies rose the ranks of the Vancouver Whitecaps youth squads before being introduced to the first team as a 15-year old. A notable accomplishment that ultimately resulted in heavyweights Bayern Munich poaching him for a total fee of $22 million. It only took a season before that fee became a bargain. Today, Davies is valued at $77 million.3 These transfers started a wave of youthful Designed Player purchases.
Green are successes, red are failures, and grey denotes it is too premature to evaluate. Barco has time to resurrect his career in Atlanta, but there remains little evidence to support the claim. Purchasing South American stars for millions of dollars has inherent risks, especially when it’s more difficult to conduct due diligence. In the case of Brian Rodríguez, his history of cocaine foreshadowed the unfortunate situation, which culminated with the Timbers terminating his contract. For others, the assimilation into North America is too difficult: Brian Rodriguez. Transfers fail regularly, but it will be interesting to look back in a few years and see whether clubs profited on this endeavor.
Formula 1
The Hungarian Grand Prix was electric from the start with a red flag issued in sector 1. Replays showed Valteri Botas taking out both Red Bulls. The red flag allowed the Marshalls to extract the debris from Verstappen’s car. Every car on the grid went into the pits to change tires except for Hamilton. This race had everything: collision in the pits, overtaking, and cars retired mid-race. The podium…
Esteben Ocon
Sebastian Vettel
Lewis Hamilton
Great for Ocon to win his first-ever Grand Prix. The Drivers’ Championship is the most exciting its been in years:
Many thought it was done and dusted, but it was truly foolish to count out Lewis Hamilton.
Bellator
A.J. McKee def. Patricio Pitbull via SUB (Round 1)
I am just as surprised as you are that I am writing about Bellator. Alas, the UFC’s card did not have the name value that justifies its inclusion in this week’s column. However, both organizations provided bout cards with knockouts — including several from leg kicks. I wanted to highlight the main event from Bellator because it culminated Scott Coker’s promise from a few years ago. Coker emphasized Bellator’s need to seek out blue-chip prospects and allow them to grow and flourish within the organization; A.J. McKee personifies what Coker sought out. Now Coker has a bonafide star who has amassed a rare, perfect 18-0 record all under the Bellator banner.
What makes McKee so unique is his rounded-out arsenal. He’s an incredibly long featherweight with the strength and wrestling for takedowns, the technical knowledge for submissions, and fluid striking. It usually takes fighters to their early 30’s to be proficient in both the ground game and striking; it is a testament to McKee’s coaching and determination to accomplish it before he turns 27.
His win over Patricio Pitbull cemented himself atop the P4P rankings in Bellator. Pitbull is an exceptional fighter who famously knocked Michael Chandler out of the entire organization. McKee prophetically predicted a 1st round head kick. He faked a jab and through a perfectly placed head kick, which rendered Pitbull stunned. McKee followed it up with a barrage of punches — accentuated by a beautiful uppercut that sent Pitbull to the floor. He, then, made a youthful mistake of celebrating before the referee called the fight. After his momentary lapse in judgment, McKee locked in a tight guillotine and ironically finished Pitbull with his trademarked move. If all else, McKee became a millionaire and started the conversation of how he would fare against the UFC’s Alex Volkanovski.
What I’m Watching This Week
Monday:
Indians vs Blue Jays at 3:07PM on MLB.TV
Tuesday:
Padres vs Athletics at 9:40PM on MLB.TV
Astros vs Dodgers at 10:10PM on MLB.TV
Wednesday:
Padres vs Athletics at 3:37PM on MLB.TV
Astros vs Dodgers at 10:10PM on MLB.TV
Thursday:
Cowboys vs Steelers at 8:00PM EST on FOX
Friday:
Mariners vs Yankees at 7:05PM on MLB.TV
Mets vs Phillies at 7:05PM on MLB.TV
Saturday:
Mariners vs Yankees at 1:05PM on MLB.TV
Mets vs Phillies at 4:05PM on MLB.TV
UFC 265:
Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque at ~11:15 PM EST on ESPN +
Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz at ~11:45PM on ESPN +
Ciryl Gane vs Derrick Lewis at ~12:10AM on ESPN+
Sunday:
Mariners vs Yankees at 1:05PM on MLB.TV
Mets vs Phillies at 1:05PM on MLB.TV
Barcelona vs Juventus at 3:30 PM
What I’m Reading
Sports
The Secret Wisdom of George Gankas, Golf's Radical New Guru (GQ) **
Kravitz: Covering Peyton Manning — sometimes dramatic, often fun, always rewarding (The Athletic) ***
The transfer window analysed: how the pandemic has changed clubs’ spending dramatically (The Athletic) ***
Bowden: MLB trade deadline grades for all 30 teams, from the Dodgers (A+) to the Rockies (F) (The Athletic) *
A.J. McKee says he’s the world’s best featherweight. He just might be right (The Athletic) **
2021 World Series futures odds: Dodgers cement favorite status with acquisition of Max Scherzer, Yankees move up too (The Athletic) *
Business
Archegos Was Too Busy for Margin Calls (BBG) ***
Blackstone's Moment (Substack) ***
Overview of the 14th Five Year Plan (Abridged Version) (Substack) **
Is That a Family Office in Your Pocket? (Substack) ***
Boutique investment banks: rainmakers have leverage (FT) **
Rugby uses Olympic showcase to tempt private equity (FT) *
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended
https://theathletic.com/2723705/2021/07/26/starting-pitcher-rankings-update-now-with-seam-shifted-wake-effects-included/?article_source=search&search_query=Joe%20musgrove
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-soccer-usa-garber/soccer-mls-must-become-selling-league-says-commissioner-garber-idUSKBN1O701W
https://www.transfermarkt.us/alphonso-davies/profil/spieler/424204
Amazing
Wonderful