Happy Tuesday, everyone.
If you have not already, I recommend going through my Playoff Primer.
Table of Contents:
What I Watched Last Week
What I am Reading
What I Watched Last Week
Perhaps this quarterback chart is the most profound of any week this season. When individuals question why the NFL MVP is a bonafide quarterback award, think about the dichotomy highlighted by this graph. Playoff success is largely determined by whether a team’s QB fits into the upper-right versus bottom-left quadrant.
Despite outperforming Dak Prescott in EPA and CPOE, Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers were fortunate to face a poorly-coached Dallas team. If tying the NFL playoff record for penalties did not prove coach Mike McCarthy’s inability to lead a franchise, this anecdote detailing his interview process illustrates his shortcomings:
While sitting down with Jones, McCarthy told the Cowboys owner that he had analyzed every snap of the team's season in 2019. When a reporter asked what specifically he learned from that exercise, McCarthy came clean.
"Well, I need to confess. I told Jerry that I watched every play of the 2019 season, but I wanted the job," McCarthy said with a laugh. "I haven't watched every play of the season, but you do what you gotta do, right?" (Business Insider)
A few moments in the Cowboys’ matchup truly made me question how McCarthy won a ring:
Down 23-7, the Cowboys converted a well-executed fake punt at the beginning of the fourth quarter. On the ensuing 1st-and-10, McCarthy opted to leave the punting unit on the field. By refusing to make a substitution, McCarthy hoped Shanahan would burn a timeout. When the latter refused, the Cowboys rushed their offensive personnel onto the field. Ultimately, the poor decision resulted in a delay of game penalty and, perhaps more importantly, lost 29 seconds of the game clock. The time lost would have been crucial in avoiding the mayhem that transpired in the game’s final play.
Down 23-17, the Cowboys were facing a 2nd-and-1 from their opponent’s 40-yard line. The 49ers were willing to give up anything in the middle of the field. On the snap, Dak takes off for a designed run. McCarthy and/or OC Kellen Moore preferred one play from inside the 30-yard line instead of two chances from the 40-yard line.
The Athletic briefly touched on the probabilities of both options: “the success rate on the longer of those two options over the past 20 years is around 13% in end-of-game situations when tied or trailing by no more than one score, compared to a 20% success rate on the shorter throws.” Regardless of opinion, the QB draw was either the wrong play call or incorrectly executed (likely both). Had Prescott slid at the 30-yard line, the Cowboys would have been left with around two seconds. Stephen Jones has assured that McCarthy’s job is safe, so it’s hard to expect much postseason improvement from the Cowboys next year.
Pivoting away from the Wild Card round, the Divisional matchups look appetizing. I compiled some of my most pressing questions.
Saturday @ 4:40 PM EST: Bengals v. Titans (-3.5)
Can Derrick Henry & D’Onta Foreman get the best of Cincy’s 5th best rushing defense?
Will Tannehill finish in the upper-right or lower-left quadrant?
Can the Titans’ dynamic safety tandem force a turnover?
What can the Bengals expect from Joe Mixon after his 2.8 yards-per-carry Wild Card showing?
Prediction:
Bengals 21
Titans 24
Saturday @ 8:15 PM EST: 49ers v. Packers (-5.5)
Will Kyle Shanahan give Deebo Samuel more than 10 rushes and 3 targets?
Can the 49ers pass rush disrupt Aaron Rodgers?
What impact will the Packers’ bye have on proceedings?
What will the weather conditions be like in Green Bay, Wisconsin?
Prediction:
49ers 17
Packers 31
Sunday @ 3:00 PM EST: Rams v. Buccaneers (-3)
Can the Rams rely on Cam Akers to lead their rushing attack?
Will All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs play?
Can Jalen Ramsey shut down Mike Evans?
Prediction:
Rams 21
Buccaneers 17
Sunday @ 6:30 PM EST: Bills v. Chiefs (-2)
Can the Bills avenge their loss from last season?
Which Chiefs defense will show?
Can the Bills sustain their offensive exploits from this past weekend?
Prediction:
Bills 31
Chiefs 27
What I’m Reading
Sports
Bully in the building: All eyes on Deebo Samuel as 49ers begin their playoff run **
‘Almost unparalleled’: At 22, Bucs’ Tristan Wirfs is already among the NFL’s best right tackles **
Kyler Murray’s finish and the Cardinals’ confounding season raise tough questions *
My game in my words. By Trent Alexander-Arnold *
Ja’Marr Chase, Micah Parsons headline Dane Brugler’s NFL All-Rookie Team *
Coutinho’s downward spiral: how it went wrong for Barcelona’s record signing *
How do you value a football club? *
Why Brentford want Christian Eriksen and where he might fit in Frank’s side *
Daryl Dike: The boy from Oklahoma who will bring brains and brawn to West Brom *
Business
The Putin Puzzle: Why Ukraine? Why Now? ***
Google's Alleged Scheme to Corner the Online Ad Market **
Jordan Thomas’s Army of Whistle-Blowers **
Bridgewater’s return to co-CEO model rekindles management concerns *
Microsoft to Buy Activision Blizzard in All-Cash Deal Valued at $75 Billion *
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended