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Table of Contents:
What I Watched Last Week
What I Am Watching This Week
Deep Dive: Rookie QB Evaluation
What I am Reading
MLB
Sunday was hectic, but it finalized the playoff matchups. I am going to recap what transpired during the final day of the regular season.
American League
We missed out on any play-in game mayhem as both the Yankees and Red Sox won their matchups. By doing so, they solidified their places in the AL Wild Card game at Fenway on Tuesday night. Otherwise, the series’ are Astros vs White Sox plus the Rays facing the Wild Card game winner.
National League
Since the Giants smacked the Padres, the Dodgers will play the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card game on Wednesday. The Dodgers must be considered as the best team in history to play in a Wild Card game — amassing a record of 106-56. The winner of the Cardinals and Dodgers will face the Giants in a thrilling series. Lastly, the Brewers will take on the Braves.
Soccer
Real Madrid 1
Sheriff 2
Wow. The Moldovian club, Sheriff, beat Madrid in the Bernabeau. Sheriff nudged past Madrid through an incredible strike in the 90th minute:
PSG 2
Manchester City 0
PSG retained group supremacy after besting City at home. City’s lack of a proper number nine was visibly apparent throughout the match. Despite taking triple the shots and double the shots on goal, City failed to trouble Donnarumma. PSG’s triumvirate of Messi, Mbappe, and Neymar remain less valuable than the sum of their parts.
Manchester United 2
Villareal 1
United seemed destined to drop points in another crucial Champions League matchup. But… that is precisely why you purchase Cristiano Ronaldo:
NFL
Steelers 17
Packers 27
Now we understand why Aaron Rodgers insisted on the return of Randall Cobb, who caught two touchdowns and ran for another. The Packers are dealing with a myriad of injuries, which made the win all the more impressive. Conversely, the Steelers are clearly on the decline and may suffer the first losing record in Mike Tomlin’s tenure.
Cardinals 37
Rams 20
I was thoroughly convinced the Rams were the best team in the NFC. Well, I was wrong as the Rams were outplayed and outcoached by a still-unbeaten Cardinals team. Despite Kyler Murray performing at an MVP level caliber, Arizona’s defense stuck out to me. Specifically, the addition of JJ Watt to compliment Chandler Jones provides the Cardinals with a dynamic pass rush. Arizona is poised to contend for the Lombardi trophy this season, something I did not anticipate writing.
Panthers 28
Cowboys 36
In the lackluster NFC East, the Cowboys appear ready to contend. In previous years, their much-maligned defense has prevented any postseason success. Their efforts thus far have assuaged many of my doubts. The play of sophomore corner Trevon Diggs has been particularly notable. Both Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, who carried 20 times for 143 yards, have returned to peak form.
Deep Dive: Rookie Quarterback Evaluation
Through four weeks, no one in this highly vaunted quarterback class has stood out. In this week’s deep dive, I will look at how they are playing compared to their peers.
The best way to begin this deep dive is to provide a snapshot of how the rookies performed in their first few weeks of action. I coded a graph to depict EPA per Play versus CPOE. EPA per Play designates the average points added per play by a quarterback. Completion Percentage Above Expected (CPOE) measures a quarterback’s performance weighed against the difficulty of their throws. The corresponding chart is below:
As you can see, the rookies have suffered a rough beginning to their NFL careers. After week 4, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson have assuredly elevated their positioning. Additionally, Mac Jones has played well and has a CPOE above average. Regardless, Lawrence, Wilson, and Justin Fields remain in the bottom left quadrant. Yes, their play has been poor, but they have been thrust into unenviable situations.
Sam Darnold in 2020 achieved the sixth-worst CPOE. After being traded to the Panthers, Darnold now ranks 14th-best in the league.
Sam Darnold did not magically become a better quarterback. Outside of Mahomes, Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, and Brady, it is difficult for a quarterback to find success without a competitive roster. In fact, the only player who enjoyed top-level success with a porous roster in 2020 was Deshaun Watson.
The Jets and Jaguars jostled back and forth to see who would earn the dubious honor of being the worst team in the NFL, with the Jaguars winning a pyrrhic victory. The NFL is far too team-oriented to have a single-player elevate a roster — no less a rookie. All of these rookies will endure growing pains. However, I did not anticipate the degree to which they would struggle early on:
Perhaps this crop will endure one of the worst rookie seasons of all time. Still, I would advise all of us, including me, to take a breather. It has only been four weeks, and entirely rational to expect that each quarterback will undergo growth before the end of the season. Moreover, Sam Darnold’s year-over-year progress illustrates that rounding out a competitive roster is imperative to a young quarterback’s success. Therefore, the onus is on the GMs of the Jets, Jaguars, and Bears to quickly construct a successful team around their young quarterback. If not, Zack Wilson (and others) will suffer a similar fate to Sam Darnold.
I wrote this column before Sunday’s games and wanted to add how each rookie performed during week 4.
Trey Lance
Lance subbed in for Garoppolo in the second half. He finished 9/18 for 157 yards and two touchdowns; a 76-yard broken play touchdown by Deebo Samuel inflated his stats. Lance has been placed in the best position to succeed as the 49ers have constructed a roster with a wide array of talent at his disposal.
Justin Fields
Fields went 11/17 for 209 yards and an interception. The Bears took care of the Lions with ease as the latter failed at numerous fourth-down attempts. Fields did an admirable job of being a game-manager — a far cry from his performance last week.
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence went 17/24 for 204 yards with neither a touchdown nor an interception. Lawrence, too, took a step forward, but it was not enough to earn his team a win.
Zach Wilson
Wilson went 21/34 for 297 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. By far, Wilson has the most impressive performance amongst the rookie quarterbacks in week 4. He made several “wow” throws where he showed off his natural arm talent and ability to make plays outside of the pocket. For the rookies, it is crucial to show incremental improvements. The play below illustrates the little things that should have Jets fans, like myself, excited. Once Wilson exits the pocket, he keeps his eyes downfield; he makes a subtle signal to his receiver, Corey Davis, to go deep. Before Davis even turns upfield, the ball is in the air with pinpoint accuracy.
For the sake of this rookie class, he must continue his upward trajectory next week in London.
Mac Jones
Jones looked comfortable in the primetime matchup against Tom Brady. He made the necessary check-downs and even threw a few deep balls. Jones entered a decent Patriots team and will solely need to tread water to be in playoff contention come winter.
What I’m Watching This Week
Monday
Raiders vs Chargers at 8:15 PM on ESPN
Tuesday
Yankees vs Red Sox at 8:08 PM on ESPN
Wednesday
Italy vs Spain at 3:45 PM on ESPN
Cardinals vs Dodgers at 8:10 PM on TBS
Thursday
Belgium vs France at 3:45 PM on ESPN
USMNT vs Jamaica at 7:30 PM on Paramount+
Rams vs Seahawks at 8:20 PM on FOX
White Sox vs Astros at TBD on FS1 & MLB Network
Yankees/Red Sox vs Rays at TBD on FS1 & MLB Network
Friday
Braves at Brewers at TBD on TBS
White Sox vs Astros at TBD on FS1 & MLB Network
Yankees/Red Sox vs Rays at TBD on FS1 & MLB Network
Cardinals/Dodgers vs Giants at TBD on TBS
Saturday
Arkansas vs Mississippi at 12:00 PM on ESPN
Maryland vs Ohio State at 12:00 PM on FOX
Oklahoma vs Texas at 12:00 PM on ABC
Georgia vs Auburn at 3:30 PM on CBS
Penn State vs Iowa at 4:00 PM on FOX
Braves at Brewers at TBD on TBS
Cardinals/Dodgers vs Giants at TBD on TBS
Sunday
Jets vs Falcons at 9:30 AM on NFL Network
Packers vs Bengals at 1:00 PM on FOX **
Bears vs Raiders at 4:05 PM on CBS **
Browns vs Chargers at 4:05 PM on CBS **
Bills vs Chiefs at 8:20 PM on NBC
USMNT vs Panama at 8:45 PM on Paramount+
Astros vs White Sox at TBD on FS1 & MLB Network
Yankees/Red Sox vs Rays at TBD on FS1 & MLB Network
** = Check Local Listings
*All times are EST*
What I’m Reading
Sports
Superstar shopping: LeBron, Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ summer of recruiting ***
UFC 266: Alexander Volkanovski becomes legitimate star in epic win over Brian Ortega ***
Justin Tucker and the Data Behind the NFL’s Record 66-Yard Field Goal **
Messi and Guardiola: The complex relationship between two people who won everything together **
Derby’s decline: How a club on the brink of the top flight unravelled**
The New York Yankees Are the Best Bad Team in Baseball—or the Worst Good One *
2021 MLB MVPs, Cy Youngs, and Rookies of the Year: Keith Law’s picks *
Cox: Messi scored a great goal but his indiscipline will cost PSG in big games **
Was the Super League illegal? Why UEFA is in court with Barcelona, Juventus and Real Madrid *
How Max Scherzer has gotten on top of the curve with the Dodgers *
Fewer shots, lower xG, fewer touches in central areas… what’s up with Harry Kane *
Even with a match-winner like Ronaldo, Manchester United look incoherent. And yet… **
How Sunday Night Football is preparing for Tom Brady’s once-in-a-lifetime return to New England *
This has to be the end for Ronald Koeman at Barcelona *
How Allegri’s tactical tweaks and ‘little signals’ of togetherness helped Juventus beat Chelsea **
Business
Disney Builds a New Magic Kingdom in Sports Betting **
Goldman Sachs, Ozy Media and a $40 Million Conference Call Gone Wrong ***
West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice Offers $300 Million Settlement Payment to Credit Suisse *
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended