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Table of Contents:
What I Watched Last Week
Deep Dive: NFL Contender Breakdown
What I Am Watching This Week
What I am Reading
What I Watched This Week
MLB
Hitter of the Week: Juan Soto
After a successful August, Juan Soto has started September with a flurry. Soto’s success at the plate derives from his innate discipline. His command of the strike zone leads to comparisons to Ted Williams. He recently joined a rare list of players, including Williams, who sustained a walk rate of over 30% for a month.
Now, Soto’s career walks have surpassed his strikeouts. In this age of baseball, Soto has eschewed high K rates to get on base consistently. I would caution many not to overhype Soto, but his body of work speaks for itself. One would be hard-pressed to overestimate his potential.
Pitcher of the Week: Gerrit Cole
I almost went with Jose Berrios for this week’s PotW, but Gerrit Cole securing a Cy Young notched him ahead.
Since coming back from the COVID I.L., Cole has been dominant. His performances culminated in his most recent outing against the Angels: 7 innings and striking out 15 batters. Many tried to discredit Cole after the Spider-Tac fiasco, but Cole’s advanced stats have not wavered during the season.
Cole has anchored the Yankees rotation and provided a needed respite from the inconsistent performances of his teammates.
Soccer
United States 0
El Salvador 0
Many fans of the MNT were visibly disappointed with this result. How could our golden generation fail to score against lowly El Salvador? The mantra of the national team in years past has been to win matches at home and draw away. The atmosphere at fellow CONCAAF territories is downright hostile. Gio Reyna needed protection from riot shields during a corner kick. Experiences at these World Cup Qualifiers will only improve the squad’s mentality.
United States 1
Canada 1
Now it is time to panic. After two consecutive draws, the United States is facing a must-win versus Honduras on Wednesday. These qualifiers have exposed the tactical weak points of manager Gregg Berhalter. With many, myself included, inclined that he was a nepotism hire, Berhalter has done nothing to quell the notion that he is in over his head.
UFC
Derek Brunson def. Darren Till via SUB (R3 2:13)
Darren Till enjoyed immense success in the UFC after his transition from Thai Boxing. He now finds himself at a career crossroads. Loses to Tyron Woodley, Masvidal, Whittaker, and Brunson are separated by a split-decision win over Kelvin Gastellum. It seems that Till relied too much on his striking and failed to develop other portions of his game.
Brunson has made himself impossible to ignore. Considered a gatekeeper, Brunson has shed his reputation by winning five straight against tough competition. A fight against Jared Cannonier makes the most sense before a potential title shot.
Formula 1
Max Verstappen dominated the Dutch GP. Besides the outcome, the most exciting aspect of the race was the underlying tension at Mercedes. With Valtteri Bottas widely expected to move to Alfa Romeo after the season, he openly rebelled against his employer during the race. Bottas’ role was to support Hamilton:
It was clear that Bottas' race was being used to create a potential headache for Red Bull and it was also clear he was never truly in contention for the win. Which made it all the more interesting when he took the fastest lap from Hamilton towards the end of the race. (ESPN)
Bottas taking the fastest lap seemed to be a figurative go to hell to principal Toto Wolff for his treatment during his tenure at Mercedes. With Red Bull boss Christian Horner suggesting that the next two races favor Mercedes cars, it will be imperative for both teams to maximize points.
U.S. Open
This has been a lackluster tournament with Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Juan Martin del Potro, Stan Wawrinka, and Dominic Thiem all absent. Besides the former champions missing the action, notable players have been on upset watch. Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas have been eliminated before the fourth round. On Sunday evening, Felix Auger Aliassime eliminated the mercurial Frances Tiafoe.
Deep Dive: NFL Contender Breakdown
Since most of my audience has some exposure to the NFL, I opted against creating a team-by-team breakdown similar to what I wrote for the Premier League. Instead, I only covered the contenders and playoff hopefuls.
AFC Contenders
Buffalo Bills
The AFC East is the Bills’ division to lose, but their six divisional matchups will be tightly contested. The Bills’ transition to a contender can be directly attributed to the GM-HC tandem of Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott. Beane and OC Brian Daboll manufactured an offense to play to Josh Allen’s strengths. In turn, Allen amassed 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. As the Quarterback Efficiency chart illustrates, Allen balanced an extremely high completion % above expected (CPOE) with a high expected points added (EPA) per play. With most of the Bills returning and the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, expect Buffalo to solidify their position as perennial contenders.
Kansas City Chiefs
The overwhelming favorites to hoist the Lombardi at +450, the Chiefs acted decisively in free agency. After a Super Bowl loss largely due to the Chiefs’ makeshift offensive line, Andy Reid and Brett Veach revamped their entire front. They traded for Orlando Brown Jr., signed guard Joe Thuney, drafted center Creed Humphrey, and the return of opt-out tackle Lucas Niang. The Chiefs’ defense remains serviceable and finished 22nd in DVOA in 2020. The only problem with KC’s roster is their lack of depth at receiver and corner.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns made some strong moves coming off an 11-win season. Shrewd planning by rolling over cap space since 2016 has allowed the Browns to carry the most expensive roster in the NFL. Further, GM Andrew Barry landed two impactful performers in the draft in corner Greg Newsome II and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Rookie corner Greg Newsome II and signing safety Josh Johnson III completely rebuilds their secondary – the most glaring deficiency on their roster. If Odell Beckham Jr. can stay healthy and the tandem of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb makes defenses load up the box, Cleveland’s offense has a chance to improve over their 9th ranked finish in 2020.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ offense is the antithesis of how one would capture the NFL the past five years. Baltimore passed the ball 42.66% of the time on 1st down, one of only two teams below the 50% threshold. Their reliance on the run exacerbates the loss of J.K. Dobbins. While Gus Edwards can handle the added workload, he lacks the explosiveness of Dobbins. I am bearish on the Ravens’ odds of winning the AFC North. Dobbins’ absence coupled with three new starters on the offensive line will result in a more passing-oriented Ravens offense.
NFC Contenders
Tampa Bay Bucs
The reigning champions accomplished a feat I have never witnessed before: they brought back every one of their free agents. The Athletic’s annual agent survey noted the same, “I don’t ever remember in the history of this sport where a team had so many free agents from a Super Bowl-winning team and was able to re-sign every one of them. It’s mind-blowing what (GM) Jason Licht and (VP of football operations) Mike Greenberg were able to do.”1 Repeating Lombardi’s is difficult, but I would be remiss to underestimate Tom Brady. Brady will make intelligent decisions and allow his playmakers to do the rest.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers’ perennial title hopes were held in the balance this offseason as Aaron Rodgers mulled his future. Eventually, Rodgers and the Packers agreed to have the MVP return for a final season. Rodgers and Matt LaFleur’s partnership has been fruitful as Rodgers’ individual accolades have accompanied a 26-6 record over their two years together. One can question whether it made sense to let center Corey Linsley depart and use the funds to bring back Aaron Jones, but those moves were made to appease Rodgers. Keeping him happy is paramount to the organization that has routinely stepped on its toes. Green Bay has copied the Chiefs’ playbook of running a high-powered offense with lackluster defense. The one year the Packers provided Rodgers a top-10 defense, he won a ring. I would wager that if new coordinator Joe Barry could scheme a similar defense, history would repeat itself. The cloud around Rodgers has hidden the fact that this is essentially the same team that had the second-highest point differential in the NFL in 2020.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ strategy of trading first-round draft picks for proven players continued this offseason. The Rams identified Jared Goff as the problem and shipped one first for Matthew Stafford and another to erase Goff’s albatross contract. Stafford is walking into a team with immense talent across the board. His receiver triumvirate of Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson might be the best in the NFL. The loss of Cam Akers for the season hurts, but McVay’s season can survive without a star back. Their success hinges on Stafford validating McVay’s hypothesis that Goff was the problem. Not much needs to be said about their defense as it remains in the top-3 units in the NFL. Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald are game-changers and give the Rams’ defense a high floor. After a miserable 2020, expect the Rams to come out firing.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle endured an offseason with questions surrounding Russel Wilson’s future as their quarterback; rumors swirled that Wilson reportedly requested a trade. The Seahawks remain one of the few teams to eschew committee approaches and, instead, run Chris Carson into the ground. Pete Carroll hiring Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator illustrates that Carroll is still committed to a run-first approach. Their defense’s performance requires key players Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap to remain healthy. If either misses time, the entire unit will suffer immensely.
Teams to Step Forward
Miami Dolphins
Miami has put sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in a position to succeed. After finishing in the dreaded bottom left quadrant in Quarterback Efficiency in 2020, Miami strengthened their receiver core with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. If Tua can perform at an average level, Miami is poised to challenge for a wild card spot. If not, they have accumulated the assets to make a splash in the offseason. Coach Brian Flores’ will ensure that Miami is ready to take the next step forward in its development.
Minnesota Vikings
I love the Vikings as a sneaky contender. After sustaining an excessive number of injuries, their defense will return Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr. If Patrick Peterson can rediscover his old form, the Vikings will have a lock-down corner to pair with their pass rush. Kirk Cousins must lean on his receivers, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Returning the best run-blocking line in the NFL bodes well for Dalvin Cook to repeat his heroics from last year. I love the Vikings +250 to win the NFC North as a value play.
Arizona Cardinals
The biggest issue plaguing the Cardinals is their division, which contains three Super Bowl hopefuls. Everything out of their camp is how A.J. Green has regained his 2015 form. Adding J.J. Watt opposite of Chandler Jones provides two pass-rushing threats to terrorize opposing quarterbacks. Expect linebacker-safety hybrid Isaiah Simmons to take a massive step forward this season. Arizona will field a competitive defense, but their lack of talented cornerbacks will lead to many shootouts. Arizona may not make the postseason but will push fellow NFC West peers to the brink.
What I’m Watching This Week
Monday
Blue Jays vs Yankees at 1:05 PM on YES
Rays vs Red Sox at 1:10 PM on ESPN
Phillies vs Brewers at 2:10 PM on MLB.TV
Mariners vs Astros at 7:10 PM on MLB.TV
Tuesday
Blue Jays vs Yankees at 7:05 PM on YES
Rays vs Red Sox at 7:10 PM on MLB.TV
Phillies vs Brewers at 7:40 PM on MLB.TV
Mariners vs Astros at 8:10 PM on MLB.TV
White Sox vs Athletics at 9:40 PM on MLB Network
Wednesday
Mariners vs Astros at 2:10 PM on MLB.TV
Poland vs England at 2:45 PM on ESPN +
Blue Jays vs Yankees at 7:05 PM on YES
Rays vs Red Sox at 7:10 PM on MLB.TV
White Sox vs Athletics at 9:40 PM on MLB Network
Honduras vs USMNT at 10:05 PM on Paramount +
Thursday
Blue Jays vs Yankees at 7:05 PM on YES
Cowboys vs Buccaneers at 8:20 PM on NBC
Friday
Yankees vs Mets at 7:10 PM on MLB Network
Red Sox vs White Sox at 8:10 PM on MLB.TV
Saturday
Man United vs Newcastle at 10:00 AM on Peacock
Man City vs Leicester at 10:00 AM on Peacock
Napoli vs Juventus at 12:00 PM on Paramount +
Oregon vs Ohio State at 12:00 PM on FOX
RB Leipzig vs Bayern at 12:30 PM on ESPN +
Iowa vs Iowa State at 4:30 PM on ABC
Sunday
Leeds United vs Liverpool at 11:30 AM on NBC Sports
Jets vs Panthers at 1:00 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Cardinals vs Titans at 1:00 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Chargers vs Football Team at 1:00 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Seahawks vs Colts at 1:00 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Steelers vs Bills at 1:00 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Browns vs Chiefs at 4:25 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Dolphins vs Patriots at 4:25 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Packers vs Saints at 4:25 PM on NFL Sunday Ticket
Bears vs Rams at 8:20 PM on NBC
Yankees vs Mets at 8:08 PM on ESPN
*All times are EST*
What I’m Reading
Sports
NFL 100: At No. 4, Lawrence Taylor, the brash, lethal force and destroyer of opposing game plans ***
‘He’s not Trevor,’ but Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei is finally in the driver’s seat *
How Bishop Sycamore, the Washington Generals of high school football, conned ESPN ***
Transfer window analysed: Less spent, young players targeted and free agents have defined key moves *
What happens when a player has to return to a club they wanted to leave? **
One Point, One Learning Process (Tyler Adams 1 on 1) **
The PGA Tour Partners With Netflix ***
Streaming the future: What’s behind MLB’s TV blackout and direct-to-consumer woes *
Command & Stuff Report: Why should anyone care about Stuff+? **
NFL 100: At No. 7, Peyton Manning, the QB with the gridiron supercomputer in his head ***
The commercial impact of Manchester United signing Cristiano Ronaldo ***
Christian Pulisic: ‘I needed permission from Jurgen Klinsmann to go to my high school prom’ *
The clock runs down on America’s pastime
Business
The $3.6 Billion Human Performance Company ***
What You’ve Lost in This Bull Market **
The Mistakes Behind the Biden Administration’s Afghanistan Withdrawal **
Search for Yield Leads Bond Buyers to Unrated Debt **
Global dealmaking set to break records after frenzied summer **
‘Buy now, pay later’ retail loan services test patience of investors **
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended
https://theathletic.com/2762455/2021/08/24/nfl-agent-survey-33-reps-on-aaron-rodgers-dak-prescott-qb-power-and-the-most-trustworthy-gms/
NFL Contender Breakdown
Cool stuff!