Monday Night Betting Card From Analytics Capper + Deep Dive: Miami Dolphins' Fall From Grace
Inside: NFL Week 8 Recap, Next Week's Schedule, and Best Articles of the Week
Happy Monday, everyone. As we approach the halfway mark in the NFL season, I wanted to write about the Miami Dolphins’ collapse for this week’s deep dive. As always, thanks to Analytics Capper for providing his picks.
I appreciate you all for sharing the newsletter:
Additionally, make sure to subscribe if you have not already.
Table of Contents:
What I Watched Last Week
Gambling With Analytics Capper
Deep Dive: Miami Dolphins’ Collapse
What I Am Watching This Week
What I am Reading
What I Watched Last Week
Some quick notes:
Geno Smith (8-0 Against the Spread) tore up the Jaguars defense
Mike White took down the #1 seed in the AFC in his first career NFL start — surpassing even the most bullish expectations
Justin Herbert has regressed with two poor performances sandwiched between a bye
Justin Fields was the only rookie to play himself into the upper right quadrant in week 8
Gambling With Analytics Capper
Last Week’s NFL & NHL & NBA
Seahawks +4.5 (-110) v. Saints 2u ✅
Panthers -1.5 (-145) v. Coyotes 2u ✅
Stars ML (-125) v. Blue Jackets 3u ❌
Blues ML (-165) v. Kings 2u ✅
Celtics -1 (-105) v. Hornets 2u ✅
Raptors +2 (-110) v. Bulls 2u ❌
Twolves -5.5 (-110) v. Pelicans 2u ❌
Week Tally: 4-3 (↓ .41 units)
Season Tally: 11-5 (↑ 6.31 units)
After his first down week, let’s see what Analytics Capper has on tap for his Monday evening bets:
NFL & NBA & NHL
Teaser (-120) 2u: Giants +17 & Giants/Chiefs Over 45.5
Pacers -3 (-110) v. Spurs 2u
Celtics -2.5 (-105) v. Bulls 2u
Betting Every NBA Under for 2u each all (-110)
Blackhawks ML (-135) v. Senators 3u
Oilers ML (-225) v. Kraken 2u
** The Lukas Review is not an online gambling operator nor a gambling site of any kind. I provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. Although I talk about betting in the newsletter, it is the responsibility of all visitors to check current local laws in their own area or country before doing any gambling online. It is your responsibility to know and follow your local laws in place.**
Deep Dive: Miami Dolphins’ Collapse
There was a time when the Dolphins seemed like they had it all figured out—and that time was only a few months ago. In 2020, Miami went 10-6, barely missing the playoffs in a loaded AFC that featured seven teams with at least 11 wins. The franchise had the right head coach, Brian Flores, and was hopeful that it had the right quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. And on top of that, it had the no. 3 pick in the 2021 draft, a byproduct of a 2019 trade with Houston that looked lopsided even before the Texans collapsed. (The Ringer)
So how did the Dolphins move from NFL pundit darling in 2020 to be tied for the worst record in the AFC in 2021? That is the central question of this week’s deep dive.
Miami seemed to have cracked the code in 2020: remain in the playoff hunt until week 17, meanwhile hold a top-3 draft pick in the upcoming draft. In reality, the Dolphins symbolize the dichotomy of front offices in the NFL: some can accumulate picks through shrewd dealmaking, others are adept at selecting players in the draft, and a few are poor at both.
Let’s take a step backward. In the 2016 Draft, the Dolphins held the 8th pick. However, they traded it to the Eagles for the 13th pick plus Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell. On draft night, star tackle Laremy Tunsil appeared in a leaked video wearing a gas mask attached to a bong. Subsequently, Tunsil slid in the draft until Miami selected him at 13th overall. Tunsil played admirably for Miami and was traded to Houston during the 2019 offseason in a lopsided transaction:
Miami Traded: Tunsil, Kenny Stills, 2020 fourth-round pick, and a 2021 sixth-round pick
Houston Traded: 2020 first-round pick, 2021 first-and second-round picks, cornerback Johnson Bademosi, and offensive lineman Julién Davenport.
The Dolphins took advantage of a Texans franchise coached by the deluded Bill O’Brien, who vastly overestimated his team’s expectations. The Dolphins used their own pick on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — one pick before the Chargers drafted Justin Herbert. Later, Miami used the Texans’ pick (18th) on tackle Austin Jackson — filling two critical positions of need.
Coming off of a 10-6 record, the Texan’s notched only four wins in a disappointing season. In 2020, the Dolphins doubled their win total from five to ten in a pivotal year. Additionally, they were armed with the Texan’s 2021 draft pick, third overall. There was much debate on whether the Dolphins should move on from Tua Tagovailoa after a lackluster season and use the third pick on a quarterback. Alternatively, they considered pursuing a trade with disgruntled star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Regardless, Miami had seemingly rewritten the NFL blueprint for a rebuilding franchise and received boundless praise from pundits.
Ultimately, the Dolphins traded down with the 49ers:
Miami Traded: 3rd overall pick 2021
49ers Traded: 12th overall pick 2021, a third-round pick, and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023
But, they were not done; GM Chris Grier acted quickly and traded again with the Eagles:
Miami Traded: 12th overall pick 2021 and their 2022 1st round pick
Eagles Traded: 6th overall pick 2021
Condensed, Miami traded the 3rd pick in 2021 and first-round in 2022 for the 6th pick in 2021, the 49er’s third-round selection in 2021, and first-rounders in 2022 and 2023. Miami took advantage of O’Brien’s hubris, but, in bitter irony, the Eagles did the same to the Dolphins. It would be unfair to grade their draft choices from 2021, but we can question whether it was prudent for Miami to give up their 2022 first-round selection for Jaylen Waddle when the Eagles selected DeVonte Smith at 12.
The clear takeaway is that Miami’s thought processes are largely sound; however, their execution is horrible. As I generalized front-offices earlier, Miami’s dealmaking armed them with an abundance of picks, but Chris Grier has underwhelmed in his drafting. PFF ranked the Dolphins’ offensive line as 29th in the league before the season.1 Grier has allocated the requisite resources, using four top-100 picks in the past three years: a first-rounder, two seconds, and a third. Alas, that draft capital has failed to result in any semblance of protection for Tua; sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words:
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) is a statistic created by Football Outsiders:
DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. (Football Outsiders)
Before week 8, Miami’s overall, offensive, defensive, and special teams’ DVOA rankings were 28th, 26th, 25th, and 25th, respectively.2 In sum, this is an awful football team whose internal hubris and poor drafting have caused them to fall into the same situation as the often-chastised Houston Texans. If they drafted Justin Herbert, Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores could argue for an additional season at the helm. One good decision — especially that of a quarterback — can disguise a plethora of bad ones. And yet, Miami could not even get that right.
What I’m Watching This Week
Monday
Raptors vs Knicks at 7:30 PM on NBA TV
Giants vs Chiefs at 8:15 PM on ESPN
Tuesday
Bayern Munich vs Benfica at 4:00 PM on Paramount+
Atalanta vs Manchester United at 4:00 PM on Paramount+
Juventus vs Zenit at 4:00 PM on Paramount+
Heat vs Mavericks at 7:30 PM on TNT
Braves vs Astros at 8:09 PM on FOX
Wednesday
Real Madrid vs Shakhtar Donetsk at 4:00 PM on Paramount+
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid at 4:00 PM on Paramount+
RB Leipzig vs PSG at 4:00 PM on Paramount+
Hawks vs Nets at 7:30 PM on ESPN
Braves vs Astros at 8:09 PM on FOX ***
Thursday
Celtics vs Heat at 7:30 PM on NBA TV
Jets vs Colts at 8:20 PM on FOX
Friday
Knicks vs Bucks at 7:30 PM on ESPN
Saturday
Manchester City vs Manchester United at 8:30 AM on NBC
Chelsea vs Burnley at 11:00 AM on Peacock
Newcastle vs Brighton at 1:00 PM on Peacock
RB Leipzig vs Dortmund at 1:30 PM on ESPN+
Auburn vs Texas A&M at 3:30 on CBS
LSU vs Alabama at 7:00 PM on ESPN
Jazz vs Heat at 7:30 PM on NBA TV
UFC 268 PPV at 10:00 PM on ESPN+
Lakers vs Trail Blazers at 10:30 PM on NBA TV
Sunday
Leeds United vs Leicester City at 9:00 AM on Peacock
Broncos vs Cowboys at 1:00 PM on FOX **
Browns vs Bengals at 1:00 PM on CBS **
Falcons vs Saints at 1:00 PM on FOX **
Patriots vs Panthers at 1:00 PM on CBS **
Vikings vs Ravens at 1:00 PM on FOX **
AC Milan vs Inter Milan at 2:45 PM on Paramount+
Chargers vs Eagles at 4:05 PM on CBS **
Cardinals vs 49ers at 4:25 on FOX **
Packers vs Chiefs at 4:25 on FOX **
Titans vs Rams at 8:20 PM on NBC
*** = If Necessary
** = Check Local Listings
*All times are EST*
What I’m Reading
Sports
Ryan Reynolds, Rob McElhenney and Wrexham: ‘It feels like something magical is about to happen’ ***
Can Newcastle do a Man City? **
Solskjaer told he’s safe for now but Manchester United’s squad is confused and divided **
Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson, Kenny Pickett and more in the NFL Draft Film Room **
Rudiger, Christensen, Azpilicueta, Silva: The four Chelsea defenders out of contract in June *
If Phil Foden’s future is in midfield, then why is he so good up front? **
NFL Power Rankings, Week 8: Titans, Derrick Henry scaring everyone ahead of Halloween *
How Ja’Marr Chase eviscerated the Ravens is more monumental for the Bengals than the fact he did **
Knicks’ 3-point revolution: Is it sustainable? **
What lives in T.J. Hockenson’s heart? Family, dog Lilo and a desire to turn the Lions around *
Why outswinging corners lead to more chances but inswingers lead to more goals *
Glover Teixeira is why we love MMA, plus other takeaways from UFC 267 *
Business
Libor Transition Vexes Collateralized Loan Obligations Market **
Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin Pursues Private Space Station *
The Billion Dollar Esports Business **
Trump’s $300 Million SPAC Deal May Have Skirted Securities Laws *
An NFT Just Sold for $532 Million, But Didn’t Really Sell at All **
Banks’ Debt Sales Are Driving the Corporate Bond Market *
Carbon Offsets Are Used by Companies Seeking ‘Net Zero,’ but Concerns Persist *
Why green activists should watch Fox News *
Facebook’s Doppelganger ETF Rakes in Cash *
Into the Metaverse: Where Crypto, Gaming and Capitalism Collide **
The Jeffrey Epstein Ties That Cost Jes Staley His Barclays Job *
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-line-units-entering-2021-season
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2021