Happy Monday, everyone.
We are amidst an exciting time of year: the convergence between winter and spring sports. The NBA playoffs and Champions League Final will ultimately cede to the MLB’s 162-game slog of a season.
For those interested in the Champions League semifinals, I will include a write-up of both Cup ties in next week’s edition.
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What I Watched This Week
MLB
Hitter of the Week: José Ramírez, 3B
After signing a 7-year, $141-million contract, José Ramírez started this season with a flurry. His 2021 Profile illustrates an ability to generate high exit velocity, pressure on the basepaths, and play above-average defense at third.
Ramírez’s value at the plate is accentuated by switch-hitting. His career numbers insinuate that Ramírez profiles more like a traditional slugger while batting lefty; conversely, he focuses on a more holistic approach from the right.
Despite 2021 being a down-year, he finished 6th in fWAR and MVP voting.
But I wanted to determine why Ramírez’s stats tailed off compared to his career numbers, considering his torrid pace to begin the 2022 season. Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) computes a player's batting average exclusively on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes like home runs and strikeouts. The league average BABIP is ~.300; significant performance above or below that benchmark can derive from contact or luck.
Historically, lefty BABIP’s trend seven points lower than righty’s due to shifts, which explains the differences in Ramírez’s splits. For reference, defenses shifted in 96.4% of Ramírez’s lefty plate appearences but only 15.4% of his righty attempts. There were no discernable differences from previous seasons, yet, Ramírez’s lefty BABIP cratered to 0.238. A change in exit velocity cannot be responsible as he accumulated a career-best barrel percentage of 11.1%.
Seemingly, one could take away that his pull-heavy approach from lefty is not conducive to modern-day, shift-heavy baseball. As others have tried to beat the shift, Ramírez embraced it in 2021 with his highest pull rate. This trend has continued in 2022, with only the results changing.
A whopping 47.1% of his batted balls have been Line Drives — double his 2021 rate. The increase in launch angle has reduced his Ground Ball rate from 36.2% in 2021 to 20.6% in 2022. If Ramírez can keep his GB% below 30% and maintain a Barrel % near his current output of 17.6%, he could run away with the MVP.
Ramírez’s commitment to the Guardians was affirmed by accepting a significantly below-market deal — a deal that may look even more ridiculous 6 months from now. Instead of hitting away from the ever-present shift, he has focused on barrelling the ball — a strategy that has yielded a Hitter of the Week accolade in week 1.
Pitcher of the Week: Carlos Rodon, SP
Injuries have prevented Carlos Rodón from fulfilling his immense potential. After being drafted 3rd overall by the White Sox, they non-tendered him in 2020 before resigning him to a 1-year, $3-million contract. He threw a combined 829 pitches between 2019 and 2020, stemming from an elongated recovery from Tommy John surgery. A year ago, Rodón no-hit the Indians in a precursor to an outstanding 2021.
Still, the White Sox let Rodón depart in free agency for a 2-year, $44-million contract with the Giants. They felt that his injury risks outweighed the potential benefit on the field. His dominant start to 2022, coupled with his impressive 2021, continues his career’s upward trend.
Disregarding the 7.2 innings pitched in 2020, Rodón has improved his xERA and K% rate each season.
Historically, Rodón relied on a lively fastball and sweeping slider along with a changeup.
Health made the difference for Rodón: he raised his average fastball velocity from 91.4 MPH in 2019 to 95.4 MPH in 2021. He increased his devastating slider’s velocity and movement while adding a curveball into his arsenal. It appears that Rodón spent the offseason working on the latter as he increased its average speed by 3.7 MPH and added another inch of vertical drop. I am curious to see if Rodón adds back his changeup or remains a 3-pitch pitcher.
Stuff+, a statistic that measures the effectiveness of a pitcher's overall arsenal and capability, illustrates Rodón’s improvement this season. After his strong 2021 that yielded a 109.5 Stuff+, he has earned a 125.5 Stuff+ through two starts in 2022. That mark places Rodón in rarified air as only deGrom and Burnes finished with higher Stuff+ in 2021. It is great to see him fulfill his immense talent after all these years floundering on the IL. Hopefully, he can keep it up.
What I’m Reading
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended
Sports
‘F them picks’: How the Rams ushered in the NFL’s all-in offseason **
How Guardiola and Klopp left the rest of the Premier League trailing in their wake **
The education of Erik ten Hag **
NFL Draft analysis: Where do Pro Bowlers come from and who might be next in 2022 class? **
NFL free agency: Execs on the good and bad of all 32 teams’ moves and strategies *
Devin Lloyd, Nakobe Dean and the value of modern linebackers in 2022 NFL Draft *
Chelsea showed their true level at the Bernabeu – what will that look like next season? *
Business
The Chips That Rebooted the Mac **
Back to the Future of Twitter **
Sure Elon Musk Might Buy Twitter **
Alphaville’s Twitter LBO model *