I hope this newsletter finds you well.
If you have not already, please check out my 2021/2022 Premier League Guide:
Table of Contents:
What I Watched Last Week
Deep Dive: Bill Bellicheck Losing His Touch?
What I Am Watching This Week
What I’m Reading
What I Watched This Week
MLB
Hitter of the Week: Salvador Perez
Salvador Perez has been on fire. He homered in four consecutive games, including two grand slams. It is terrific to see Perez return to his peak after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019. His home run on Sunday tied him with Carlton Fisk for the most homers hit by an AL catcher — quite an accomplishment. It has become apparent that this season will be another chapter in a Hall of Fame career.
The main takeaway from Perez’s Baseball Savant profile is his superb ability to put his barrel on pitches both inside and outside the strike zone.
As his manager, Mike Mathey, said, “His strike zone is: What can he get barrel to and hit hard? If he has a good awareness of the limits of that, then becomes more selective, I think he’d be on the right track.”1 Perez’s strength allows him to widen the strike zone and key on sliders. His stats against sliders are eye-popping: .292 xBA, .586 xSLG, and .386 xwOBA. Perez receives them 26.6% of the time — his second most frequent pitch.
Pitcher of the Week: Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright had two great starts this week. At 39 years old, Wainwright has discovered the fountain of youth. As Fangraphs broke down, Wainwright treats at-bats with surgeon-like precision. I will synthesize their findings but click here if you want to read the original article.
The chart below depicts swings on pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%), inside the zone (Z-Swing%), and over the heart of the plate (Heart Swing%).
Count: 0-0
Wainwright tries to get ahead early, knowing a hitter will only swing 50% of the time — even if the pitch is over the heart of the plate.
Count 0-1:
Now comes his patented sinker: “If you want to swing at a sinker — and again, batters do — you’re going to be swinging at a miserable one, on the knees and at the corner of the zone.”2
At two strikes, Wainwright is in complete control. He can pivot from his sinker to his curveball, which has a 27.2 K% and .347 xSLG against it. Those two pitches in tandem are lethal and are among the drivers behind his success this season.
Soccer
Manchester City 5
Arsenal 0
You could not draw up a worse start for Arsenal. Pep continues to do what Pep does — conjure up goals without a proper number nine.
West Ham 2
Crystal Palace 2
This match was a treat, with Man of the Match Michail Antonio notching an assist and goal. His standout performances have buoyed West Ham to second in the table after three matchdays.
Liverpool 1
Chelsea 1
If this match does not reflect Chelsea’s title chances, then I do not know what will. After starting up 1-0 from a Kai Havertz looping header, Liverpool scored through a penalty. On a corner kick, Liverpool had two chances at goal before a Sadio Mane attempt was blocked by Reece James’ arm. The gaff was a double whammy: penalty and red card. With Liverpool equalizing before halftime, most assumed they would take the three points. However, Tuchel’s defensive organization allowed Chelsea to sneak away with a draw.
Manchester United 1
Wolves 0
During the first 15 minutes of the match, United had to withstand a barrage of attacks on the break. Ultimately, Mason Greenwood slammed a shot past the keeper in a moment of brilliance, which proved decisive. Off the pitch, the impending transfer of Cristiano Ronaldo will undoubtedly boost United’s title aspirations and lessen the pressure up-front. Wolves will feel hard done by as they have played well against Leicester, Tottenham, and United to start the season but failed to notch a single point with three “1-0” defeats. A lack of finishing has certainly hurt, with winger Franciso Trincão missing several opportunities.
UFC
Giga Chikadze def. Edson Barboza via TKO
Two outstanding strikers squared off in the UFC Fight Night main event. Giga performed admirably and has the best kicks in the division. Some argued referee Jason Herzog stopped the fight too soon, but it was clear that Barboza was wobbled, and any subsequent strikes to the head would be unnecessary. Continuing, an appealing opponent for Giga would be Max Halloway.
Formula 1
A terrible downpour required a delayed start. After a four-hour wait, the race was abandoned. Since drivers passed the minimum two laps, half points were awarded for their efforts.
If a sprint qualifying session or race is suspended under Article 50, and cannot be resumed, no points will be awarded if the leader has completed two laps or less, half points will be awarded if the leader has completed more than two laps but less than 75% of the original sprint qualifying session or race distance and full points will be awarded if the leader has completed 75% or more of the original sprint qualifying session or race distance. (Article 6.5)
Points were determined based upon the end of lap 1, which had Max Verstappen, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton on the podium. Verstappen’s win brought him within three points of Hamilton’s lead.
Deep Dive: Bill Belichick
As a Jets fan, I have grown accustomed to gut-wrenching beatdowns. My childhood was riddled with upsetting Sundays and the ridiculous offseason storylines, for example, IK Enemkpali punching Geno Smith. Every year, I naively thought the Jets could surpass the Patriots. No, that never happened. The combination of Brady and Belichick rolled on and on with a revolving door of supporting characters.
When Robert Kraft poached Belichick from the Jets, he offered him both coaching and personnel duties. The secret to the Patriots’ success was Belichick’s ability to identify impactful performers in the draft’s late rounds. Beyond x’s and o’s, Belichick fostered a winning culture that promoted taking pay cuts across the board. Those seeking more zeroes in their bank accounts were swiftly replaced with draft picks.
The difference between the Jets and the Patriots was always best illustrated in free agency. Every year, ESPN and other sports outlets shared how the top spenders in free agency fared in the subsequent season. The Jets and other inept franchises were always near the top spenders and the bottom in the win column. Why? The most elite players in the NFL rarely make it to free agency. With tools like the franchise tag, a star player must truly be determined to reach free agency. Thus, the top-tier players that reach free agency are handsomely overpaid. Time and time again, I marveled at the Patriot’s successes and incorrectly bestowed the credit on Belichick.
In hindsight, Tom Brady was the reason players flocked to the Patriots. The combination of Brady and Belichick was undoubtedly symbiotic; however, any doubts of Brady’s impact were assuaged after their first year apart. The Patriots regressed from 12 to 7 wins; meanwhile, Tom Brady won another ring. Further, Bill Belichick’s recent stretch of poor drafting ultimately led to a lack of restraint in free agency.
Why would someone of Belichick’s stature and intelligence deviate from his successful blueprint? Big deals to Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, and Matthew Judon all bucked the Patriot trend. Specifically, signing Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry left me scratching my head. Two quotes stuck out in The Athletic’s Annual NFL Agent Survey:
“All the Patriots’ moves were interesting because that spending was totally out of the norm. Once Tom Brady left, it showed how bad they were at drafting, which is ironic since Nick Caserio just got a GM job in Houston.”3
And…
“The Patriots paying top-of-market for two tight ends, especially since Hunter Henry misses five games every year and Jonnu Smith means paying for potential.”4
My first step was identifying where the Patriots erred on their drafting. Football Outsiders calculated NFL Drafting Efficiency from 2010 through 2019. By measuring Draft Return vs. Draft Capital, all teams were placed on equal footing.
The percentages are calculated by taking the “average amount of career approximate value (CarAV) generated by drafted players, divided by the percentage of expected CarAV from draft picks used.”5 In simpler terms, how much better your selections were than the average from those draft places. After a sustained period of drafting excellence, New England’s draft woes began in 2017 and continued through 2019. They were the worst in that span by an overwhelming margin. The three years of poor drafting left massive gaps in their roster. Tom Brady’s exodus added another hole and caused free agents to stop taking Brady-sized discounts.
Next, I went into roster construction. A Penn State thesis identified:
The optimal allocation of the fixed amount of salary funds for NFL teams based on the relative value of each position group. Using two different proxies for player performance, regression models were employed to estimate the value of each position group in terms of contribution to team win percentage. The results of each model identified the optimal allocation of a team’s salary cap, which was then compared to actual payroll allocations used in the NFL.6
I compared Bill Belichick’s cap utilization to the model from 2018-2021. Keep in mind the model assumes that every dollar of the salary cap is used while teams in the NFL roll over any extra cap space to use it in the following year. The chart below depicts the differences between them. The bars in the top half (WR/TE, Secondary) represent the Patriots providing more resources than the model suggests. Therefore, there is a clear emphasis from Belichick to allocate resources towards their secondary and skill positions.
Previously, the Patriots have been rolling over their extra cap space to the following season. The trigger was pulled in 2021 as the Pats dished out $159.6 million in guaranteed money during free agency. There was a sense of urgency that I have never witnessed from a Belichick-coached team. Perhaps watching Brady win a Super Bowl without him struck a cord. Despite Belichick’s desperation to win another ring before retirement, splashes in free agency do not necessarily correlate with on-field success. With an unclear situation at QB, the Patriots are primed for a 7-9 win season — football purgatory.
I could very well be wrong; Vegas has their win over/under total at 9.5. Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry could become the tight-end tandem that Gronk and Aaron Hernandez were destined to be. The Patriots could tear through the AFC before another Super Bowl victory. It would not change the complete 180-degree shift from Bill Belichick.
This offseason appears to be the antithesis of the Patriot way and, coupled with a few head-scratchers, makes me question whether Belichick’s ego is behind these moves. Furthermore, his success as an executive has always been his trait of identifying gems in the draft. The overwhelming amount of misses in recent drafts begs the question of whether his time as an elite executive has passed. The answer hinges on the performance of this year’s free agent and draft class.
What I’m Watching This Week
Monday
Red Sox vs Rays at 7:10 PM on ESPN
Brewers vs Giants at 9:45 PM on MLB.TV
Braves vs Dodgers at 10:10 PM on ESPN
Tuesday
Red Sox vs Rays at 7:10 PM on NESN/MLB.TV
Brewers vs Giants at 9:45 PM on MLB.TV
Braves vs Dodgers at 10:10 PM on MLB.TV
Wednesday
Portugal vs Ireland at 2:45 PM on ESPN+
France vs Portugal at 2:45 PM on ESPN+
Red Sox vs Rays at 7:10 PM on NESN/MLB.TV
Brewers vs Giants at 9:45 PM on MLB.TV
Braves vs Dodgers at 10:10 PM on MLB.TV
Thursday
Spain vs Sweden at 2:45 PM on ESPN+
Brewers vs Giants at 3:45 PM on YouTube
Red Sox vs Rays at 7:10 PM on NESN/MLB.TV
El Salvador vs United States at 10:05 PM on
Friday
Dodgers vs Giants at 9:45 PM on MLB.TV
Astros vs Padres at 10:10 PM on MLB.TV
Saturday
Ukraine vs France at 2:45 PM on ESPN+
Slovakia vs Croatia at 2:45 PM on ESPN+
Astros vs Padres at 8:40 PM on MLB.TV
Dodgers vs Giants at 9:05 PM on MLB.TV
Sunday
Switzerland vs Italy at 2:45 PM on ESPN+
Astros vs Padres at 8:40 PM on MLB.TV
Dodgers vs Giants at 7:08 PM on MLB.TV
Canada vs United States at 8:00 PM on Fox Sports
*All times are EST*
What I’m Reading
Sports
Jesse Marsch is the Closest Thing to a Real-Life Ted Lasso ***
Will Messi’s commercial pull cover the cost of his move to PSG? ***
Is having the transfer window open once the season starts a bad idea? **
How Abraham stole the show on debut for Mourinho’s new Roma *
Is the battle over spin-enhancing substances over? Or is spin creeping back in? **
NFL agent survey: 33 reps on Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, QB power and the most trustworthy GMs ***
NFL agent survey, part II: 33 reps on Jerry Jones, Jon Gruden, Urban Meyer and fixing the NFL ***
NFL preseason playing-time trends have been turned on their head **
The story of how Harry Kane took on Daniel Levy and lost **
Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea: Resilient visitors show they are serious title contenders ***
How do you defend against Romelu Lukaku? **
Why do artificial pitches continue to divide opinion in elite football? **
Business
Global economic data disappointments add to rising growth angst *
Will gold have its day as a crisis hedge? *
*** Must Read
** Very Good
* Recommended
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article253779363.html
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-incomparable-adam-wainwright/
https://theathletic.com/2762455/2021/08/24/nfl-agent-survey-33-reps-on-aaron-rodgers-dak-prescott-qb-power-and-the-most-trustworthy-gms/
https://theathletic.com/2762455/2021/08/24/nfl-agent-survey-33-reps-on-aaron-rodgers-dak-prescott-qb-power-and-the-most-trustworthy-gms/
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019
https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/6766